Does Kim Jong Un’s departure from decades of North Korean policy

Global security observers are closely monitoring North Korea, where Kim Jong Un’s latest provocations are raising doubts about his military intentions, as the war in Ukraine drags on into its third year and the fighting in Gaza exacerbates a wider crisis throughout the Middle East. The leader has disregarded decades of his nation’s policy toward South Korea in recent weeks, declaring that North Korea will no longer pursue peace and reconciliation with the South and demanding that it be labeled as their “permanent enemy.”Kim stated at a political event last month that North Korea “does not want war, but will not avoid it,” according to official outlet KCNA. He referred to South Korea by its official name and stated that the nation’s objective in the event of war would be “occupying, suppressing and reclaiming the Republic of Korea and subjugating it into the territory of the republic.” Along with a barrage of weapons tests, shelling of a maritime buffer zone, and demands from Kim for North Korea to quicken war preparations in response to US “confrontation moves,” the nuclear-capable nation has undergone a radical change in policy. All of these changes are raising questions about the intentions of the country’s secretive regime’s leader among seasoned observers and causing concern on a global scale.

A significant change by Kim Jong UN seems like war 

Governments on both sides of the Korean Peninsula have maintained for decades that they are related and that their ultimate goal is a peaceful reunification. Since the Korean War’s armistice ended in 1953, the two sides have been cut off from one another and are still technically at war. According to Kim Jong Un, South Korea is no longer seen as just another Korea. According to Edward Howell, a politics lecturer at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom who specializes in the Korean Peninsula, “South Korea is perceived as an entirely foreign power.” According to experts, reclassifying South Korea as an enemy state gives Kim cover for maintaining his nuclear and missile arsenal while exerting pressure on Seoul, which has taken a more aggressive stance against Pyongyang under President Yoon Suk Yeol. In recent years, despite severe international sanctions, Kim has persisted in expanding his arsenal, concentrating on creating weapons that can target not only South Korea and Japan but also the US territory of Guam and the US mainland. He views these capabilities as crucial for averting a possible attack and guaranteeing the survival of his regime. Kim also ordered the demolition of Pyongyang’s Arch of Reunification monument, which is seen above, in conjunction with his policy change. Kim also ordered the demolition of Pyongyang’s Arch of Reunification monument, which is seen above, in conjunction with his policy change. 

Being “emboldened” for combat is crucial 

Seeing as the world around him changes, the North Korean leader might also feel more assured about his arsenal and his options. According to experts, Kim sees an ascendant China encircled by a growing coalition of nations, including Russia and Iran, all at odds with the West, and the US whose waning influence is being tested in conflicts from the Middle East to Ukraine. According to Rachel Minyoung Lee, a nonresident fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, “Kim Jong Un has been emboldened… not simply by the divide between the US and China and the US and Russia, but more importantly, a fragmented world where US leadership has been weakened considerably and there are no meaningful consequences for aggression.” His change in stance toward South Korea is part of a “broader, fundamental shift in foreign policy, namely pivoting to China and Russia and giving up normalization of relations with the US through denuclearization,” she said.

This change in course was greatly aided in September when Vladimir Putin invited the leader of North Korea to Russia for an uncommon visit; Western officials claim that this meeting was motivated by the Russian President’s need to replenish his dwindling military supplies to continue his war on Ukraine. Since then, Russia has launched short-range ballistic missiles into its war with North Korea, the White House said, describing it as a “concerning escalation” of Pyongyang’s support. Analysts have conjectured that Russia has helped North Korea’s spy satellite program in return. Enhancing collaboration with Moscow may also aid Kim in resolving ongoing shortages of food and fuel, as well as developing North Korea’s economy. China, which is by far North Korea’s most significant economic benefactor, is still cautious about any actions taken by Pyongyang that might cause instability or attract additional US forces to the area. Beijing, however, has recently obstructed US-backed attempts in the UN Security Council to condemn North Korea due to growing tensions with Washington. Going forward, Beijing intends to maintain contact with Pyongyang, particularly as it gets closer to Moscow. According to Howell at Oxford, Kim’s regime may also view the growing Middle East conflict as a chance to criticize the West and earn revenue. Iran has long served as a go-between for North Korea in its arms supply to terrorist organizations like Hamas. He stated, “(One) thing that has changed is North Korea’s ability to take advantage of the larger global crises.”

What will happen next between nations? 

Experts caution that as Washington steps up drills and cooperation with its regional allies to deter Kim, North Korea’s escalation of hostilities is expected to continue this year. There is disagreement over how to reduce those tensions, but some policy experts argue that this demonstration of force is still the most effective way to thwart North Korean aggression. Others contend that to keep Pyongyang from getting closer to Beijing and Moscow, the alliance must find measures to reduce the possibility that Kim will perceive their actions as a threat to his regime. According to Lim in Seoul, “Kim Jong Un has vowed to occupy South Korean territory without hesitation and is wary of a full-scale provocation by the South Korean military disguised as a military exercise.” In April 2019, Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, is pictured on the center right, shaking hands with Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea. The US expresses worries about North Korea and Russia developing amicable relations. “Therefore, a military conflict could occur on the Korean Peninsula if the US, South Korea, and Japan fail to de-escalate the threat from North Korea during joint military exercises,” he stated.

“An emboldened Kim Jong Un may be more inclined to take military action against what he perceives to be the slightest threat to North Korea, such as joint US-South Korea military exercises,” Lee in Washington agreed. Kim will also be keeping a close eye on the US presidential elections in the coming months as Trump attempts to gain back office. If the former president were to win reelection, it’s unclear if Kim would interact with him once more. However, analysts speculate that Kim is probably hoping that a newly elected Trump, who has a history of disparaging foreign alliances, would reverse US security cooperation with South Korea and Japan. The leader of North Korea may even try to manipulate the election results through a bold move. Park of Ewha Womans University suggests that Kim might carry out Pyongyang’s seventh nuclear test, which would be the first since 2017. He declared, “If North Korea carries out a seventh nuclear test, it means a complete failure of the Biden administration and gives Trump (to call Biden) ineffective in dealing with the North Korean leader] a very good attack point.” In the future, Park stated, even with the drastic adjustments that Kim has made to his nation’s policy toward South Korea, he could still change course “anytime” to undo these adjustments if he sees a chance to further his larger objectives by reconciling with the US and the South. He declared, “One can expect this kind of behaviour from North Korea.”