Ukraine Outnumbered,Outgunned, and Captured
UKRAINE: The infantry of the 59th Brigade is facing a grim reality as the war in Ukraine approaches its third year: they are running out of soldiers and ammunition to fend off their Russian invaders. A platoon commander known only by his call sign “Tygr” calculated that at the beginning of the conflict, only 60–70% of the several thousand men in the brigade were still in the military. The others had died, been injured, or signed off due to illness or advanced age. The horrific conditions on the eastern front, where frozen soil turns into thick mud in abnormally warm temperatures, have made the heavy casualties caused by Russian forces even more unbearable for the soldiers. “There is rain, snow, rain, and more rain.” As a result, people become sick with the common flu or angina. There is no one to take their place as they have been out of commission for some time, according to a company commander in the brigade known only as “Limuzyn.” “The most immediate problem in every unit is lack of people.” Vladimir Putin’s Russia is leading the battle, which blends high-tech drone warfare that is launching tens of thousands of machines into the skies above with attritional trench warfare reminiscent of World War One, on the eve of the second anniversary of its invasion on February 24.
Avdiivka, in the fiercely contested eastern Donetsk region, was taken over by Moscow over the weekend, marking a significant victory for the capital, which has made incremental gains in recent months. The defenders were outnumbered seven to one, according to a spokesman for the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, one of the units that attempted to hold the town. Over twenty soldiers and commanders from infantry, drone, and artillery units were interviewed by Reuters on various segments of the 1,000-kilometer frontlines located in eastern and southern Ukraine. Although they remained driven to resist Russian occupation, they discussed the difficulties in deterring a more powerful and well-equipped adversary as Western military assistance wanes despite appeals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for more. “Weapons break, and if there is no possibility of bringing them more ammunition or changing their weapons, then you understand what this leads to.” When asked about the situation on the front lines and how both sides plan to continue fighting the war until the end of the year, the defense ministries of Russia and Ukraine did not immediately reply.
Combatants and ammunition
Kyiv’s war effort is largely funded by supplies and equipment from abroad, but with $61 billion in U.S. aid delayed due to political squabbling in Washington, the country appears more vulnerable than it has been since the invasion began. According to a soldier wearing the call sign “Skorpion” and serving in a GRAD rocket artillery unit, his launcher, which is equipped with Soviet-made ammunition that is owned by a small number of Ukraine’s allies, is currently only using about 30% of its full potential. “This is how it became recently,” he stated. “There aren’t as many foreign munitions.” Another shortage of artillery shells is a result of Western nations’ incapacity to maintain the rate of shipments necessary for a protracted conflict. Adding to the U.S. supply halt, the EU has acknowledged it will fall short by almost 50% of its goal of providing one million shells to Ukraine by the end of March. Russian military expert and senior fellow Michael Kofman of the Washington-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace calculated that Russia’s artillery was firing five times as often as Ukraine’s, a statistic that Hryhoriy of the 59th Brigade also provided. “Ukraine is not getting a sufficient amount of artillery ammunition to meet its minimum defensive needs, and this is not a sustainable situation moving forward,” Kofman stated.
Beyond manpower, Moscow spends a fraction of what Ukraine does on defense. It allocated $109 billion for the industry in 2024, which is more than twice Ukraine’s target of $43.8 billion. While a new law aiming at mobilizing an additional 450–500,000 Ukrainians is slowly making its way through parliament, some soldiers engaged in combat right now believe that substantial reinforcements are a long way off. In a recent letter to the European Union, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov described the country’s artillery ammunition shortage as “critical” and urged national leaders to take further action to increase supplies. According to his letter, his forces could only fire 2,000 artillery shells per day, whereas Ukraine’s “absolute critical daily minimum requirement” was 6,000, as reported by the Financial Times.
Massive drone warfare
The fact that air defenses serve as a deterrent makes conventional warplanes a relatively uncommon sight over the front lines. However, there’s another war going on in the skies, with both sides vying for supremacy in drone technology. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones, are inexpensive to manufacture, capable of precisely dropping ordinance, and capable of monitoring enemy movements. Kiev has witnessed a surge in drone manufacturing and innovation, leading to the development of sophisticated, long-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Meanwhile, Moscow has made substantial investments to equal or surpass Ukraine, negating the former’s initial advantage.
According to Mykhailo Fedorov, the minister of digital affairs, more than 300,000 drones were ordered by Ukrainian manufacturers last year, with over 100,000 of them being deployed to the front lines, as reported by Reuters. These days, FPV drones that are light and agile and allow pilots to see things from the first person through an onboard camera are highly sought after. Aiming to produce one million FPV drones this year, President Zelenskiy has set the goal in light of the advantages the technology offers on the battlefield. According to Limuzyn, the 59th Brigade’s company commander, Ukrainian troops have found it challenging to establish or reinforce their fortified positions due to Russia’s extensive use of drones. “Our guys start to do something, a drone sees them, and a second drone arrives to drop something onto them.”
Months of conflict
Ukraine claimed that after months of intense fighting, it pulled its troops to avoid being surrounded. Although there had been casualties, the Ukrainian military claimed that following the withdrawal, things had somewhat stabilized. Each party claimed the other had sustained significant losses. Moscow has been attempting to wear down Ukrainian forces as Kyiv considers a significant new mobilization following the country’s failure to breach Russian front lines in the east and south last year. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, named a new war commander last week.
After eight years of fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine, Putin dispatched tens of thousands of troops into the country in February 2022, sparking a full-scale conflict. Ten years of fighting have passed in Avdiivka, also known as Avdeyevka among the Russians. It is especially significant to Russia because, in 2014, separatists backed by Moscow briefly captured it and took control of a large portion of eastern Ukraine. However, Ukrainian troops eventually retook the area and fortified it extensively. Situated in the industrial Donbas region, Avdiivka is 15 km (9 miles) north of Donetsk, a Ukrainian city under Russian control. The Soviet-era coke plant in Avdiivka was one of the largest in Europe prior to the war. According to Shoigu, the village of Krynky in the southern Kherson region of Ukraine has also been taken over by Russian forces. The southern military command of Ukraine declared that Russian attacks had failed and that its forces had remained in place on the Dnipro River’s left bank.